otoh the state of the Taiwanese military is ... not great!
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I freely accept that it would be a bungle-off. But even an unopposed sealift across the Taiwan Strait would be hard to organize, and impossible to conduct by surprise.
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This for a thousand times.
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While I agree, if you read Tanner, he suggests it might be the Taiwanese themselves that are the biggest threat. Most don't buy into the narrative nor feel like training/preparing for an invasion.
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Remember that time Ukraine gave up nukes? Got invaded bigly. Nobody is going to stop China.
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