One thing I feel my group and many others demonstrated in 2020 was that there's no relationship between political giving to state house races and the outcomes of those elections. In fact, there's some evidence it backfires. Hold on to your wallets with both hands.https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1405601078478098432 …
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Replying to @Pinboard
Curious: what are the common threads between the funded candidate playbooks? What's a glaring omission? Money can be spent in lots of ways; the opponents to a lot of legally questionable things.
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Replying to @omershapira
I'm not sure I understand this question. Most candidates spend on a similar mix of social media, hiring field staff, radio ads, lawn signs, etc.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Media buy says nothing about message. Only few in the Great Slate found a media message that mobilized rural audiences left (or discouraged R votes). That showed that giving money without improving the playbook is useless, but do you feel you proved early money doesn't help?
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Replying to @omershapira
My contention is that the races are too nationalized to shift. Rural republicans might like candidate X as an individual, or agree with them on issues, but will still vote against them because they feel the candidate would be the pawn of a national Democratic agenda they hate.
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Replying to @Pinboard
That almost sounds like an identity-era rural strategy? Run a regional candidate as an independent and hope for the best? Not to make any strong comparisons but LBJ is still sanctified in Hill Country for this type of agenda
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Replying to @omershapira @Pinboard
(didn't run as independent, but promised & delivered progress for his own constituents, and thus became untouchable)
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The issue that runs into is the completely polarized and gridlocked Congress. The era where legislators could push through individual stuff for their district or region and run on that basis seems to be over.
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