One thing I feel my group and many others demonstrated in 2020 was that there's no relationship between political giving to state house races and the outcomes of those elections. In fact, there's some evidence it backfires. Hold on to your wallets with both hands.https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1405601078478098432 …
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I normally hate to pee on other people's fundraising, but I think it's important to make new mistakes rather than repeating old ones. And we've seen in state after state that pouring any amount of national money into state legislative races just doesn't work.
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The political spending cycle is spinning out of control, and as everyone runs out of ways to spend money upballot, the money is moving downballot. At the same time, those races have become nationalized (and therefore tethered to political identities local spending can't shift)
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I can promise you on bended knee that there will not be a single political candidate above the level of dogcatcher whose campaign will fail for lack of money in 2021 or 2022. All your donation will do is feed a growing chain of parasites that dead-ends in Facebook profits.
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Replying to @Pinboard
State/local political candidates *do* need money for e.g. campaign staff, literature, yard signs, etc. I do agree that having national money suddenly pour into state/local elections isn't very helpful. If you want to flip legis, you need to make a it a long-term project.
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Replying to @faydrus
I think the nationalization of these state legislative elections is a new development and a tough nut to crack. What do you do when you're running in a district with 9,000 voters and your opponent is not even running against you, but haranguing against Nancy Pelosi and socialism?
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Take the example of Iowa. The 2020 state legislative races were not a case of money just pouring in haphazardly, there was a long-term strategy to run good candidates in what seemed like the best chance in years to win the house. But it got steamrollered by the national dynamic.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Do you have any background info on IA's state races? My main experience is with the Democrats in New Mexico.
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There's tons of good posts on this blog that kind of laid out the strategy and hopes pre-election https://www.bleedingheartland.com/ . In a nutshell, the state house majority was within sight and there was hope for a long time that Biden would do well in Iowa.
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