One thing I feel my group and many others demonstrated in 2020 was that there's no relationship between political giving to state house races and the outcomes of those elections. In fact, there's some evidence it backfires. Hold on to your wallets with both hands.https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1405601078478098432 …
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I normally hate to pee on other people's fundraising, but I think it's important to make new mistakes rather than repeating old ones. And we've seen in state after state that pouring any amount of national money into state legislative races just doesn't work.
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The political spending cycle is spinning out of control, and as everyone runs out of ways to spend money upballot, the money is moving downballot. At the same time, those races have become nationalized (and therefore tethered to political identities local spending can't shift)
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Replying to @Pinboard
If political giving at scale has the effect of nationalizing races, there are presumably races where that can be done strategically (to unseat beloved incumbents or whatever). :)
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I don't think there's a causal relationship from fundraising to these races becoming nationalized; I think the same dynamic that makes national fundraising effective is the one that is nationalizing the races.
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