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    1. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor Aug 22

      Even abstracting away from the realities of the current situation that make things much bleaker (literally unprecedented large structural biases in favor of Republicans in the house, senate, and electoral college), Democrats have averaged ~1 trifecta every 14 years since Carter. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1429518079952924676 …pic.twitter.com/2cp8pBt2aF

      15 replies 74 retweets 347 likes
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Aug 22
      Replying to @davidshor

      Blowing the whistle on this statistics foul. Data points not independent; insufficient data for meaningful answer. Twenty five tweet penalty.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor Aug 22
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Trifectas are obviously pretty rare? It's really hard for them not to be if you simultaneously have midterm penalties and incumbency advantage (either directly or via gerrymandering) It's *not impossible* that midterm penalties are dead forever but it's a pretty radical claim.pic.twitter.com/rxvqVEoDN3

      2 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Aug 22
      Replying to @davidshor

      I agree on all counts! I'm just saying you can't be arguing from averages here.

      1:16 PM - 22 Aug 2021
      • 1 Like
      • William Andrews
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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