I should say that this is the thing I'm prepping for now. I can't say I believe it's inevitable (some do, but not me), but it is the highest likelihood Really Really Bad Event on my radar right now, it's what 100% of my prepping efforts are now geared toward.https://twitter.com/grayzonewarlord/status/1429166786725941249 …
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I'm not prepping for WW3, tho a nuclear exchange is obviously a huge risk, but for a short, regional, conventional conflict over Taiwan or SCS that wrecks supply chains far worse than what we're seeing now, & features a lot of cyberattacks & related outages here on CONUS.
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What this would mean in practical terms is that the US would go backwards toward something like "developing world" status in most areas at a high rate of speed. This has already happened quickly during COVID, but would be dramatically sped up in a China conflict.
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So the way to prep for this is not to buy a bunch of camping gear & prepare to live in the woods, but to imagine "what if the area where I live suddenly went in a Latin America direction overnight, with deteriorating security, services, etc. + currency problems."
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jonstokes.com Retweeted Flaherty.eth
I should clarify on "outages." If China takes down a whole regional grid then we're in a WW3 situation. It's a long story, but a "black start" of a whole modern grid hasn't been done, so if it goes down it's down for months, & we'll retaliate accordingly.https://twitter.com/josephflaherty/status/1429525453639987203 …
jonstokes.com added,
Flaherty.eth @josephflahertyGiven the way COVID/Afghanistan caught "experts" off guard, the "China takes down the Eastern Interconnect power grid and prevents export of chips/electronic/meds," scenario worries me a lot more than it did two years ago. https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1429518816812404737 …4 replies 3 retweets 21 likesShow this thread -
So when I say I'd expect cyberattack-related outages, I mean at the application layer of the internet stack -- banking, shipping, retail, etc. If they take the lower layers offline or especially the grid, that's a full SHTF type thing & things would get more Hollywood doomsday.
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Here's some more info on black starts, & why it's catastrophic if a whole interconnect goes offline. Most of the grid has been built out piecemeal over just the last 70 years. It's very new, & was not designed to be just rebooted like a PC. https://theprepared.com/emergencies/guides/emp/ …pic.twitter.com/hQ0pCQ8uXT
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So if we're in a regional maritime conflict with China and a big chunk of CONUS goes dark suddenly, then: 1. The attacked region will not be lighting back up for months, maybe longer, and 2. This is a massive escalation and I'd expect full-scale war to break out.
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The power grid black start scenario also applies if there's a once per century solar flare along these lines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event …). Trying to figure out the relative likelihood of these two events (flare vs. war) is an exercise in humility.
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