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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 24

      Taleb's argument is indisputable. When bitcoin failed as a payment system and became an income-free speculative asset then its terminal value is contingent on expectation of infinite greater fools and thus its present value cannot be anything but zero.https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204 

      86 replies 225 retweets 1,186 likes
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 24
      Replying to @smdiehl

      * assuming rational actors

      3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
    3. Dirk-Jan Swagerman‏ @djswagerman Jul 24
      Replying to @Pinboard @smdiehl

      Could irrational actors avoid the absorbing barrier forever?

      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
    4. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 24
      Replying to @djswagerman @Pinboard

      Doesn't depend on assumptions about economically rational actors. It's a purely quantitative argument about cashflows. The lack of income is what makes it an unstable asset. Human psychology doesn't come in at all.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 25
      Replying to @smdiehl @djswagerman

      My point is that it's an argument about a formal system divorced from human behavior. Taleb usually doesn't fall into that trap.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Dirk-Jan Swagerman‏ @djswagerman Jul 25
      Replying to @Pinboard @smdiehl

      I just doubled checked the paper. It seems that taleb’s argument does not depend on actors being rational. He just refers to “rational” in the context of including future price variations in the price ‘now’? That’s at least how I interpret it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 25
      Replying to @djswagerman @smdiehl

      What I'm arguing is that it's a category error kind of like trying to find the net present value of spending a year in Purgatory. The Bitcoin thing is a belief system and worldview that is only cosplaying as an asset class.

      3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
    8. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 25
      Replying to @Pinboard @djswagerman

      That's the point of the paper though, if he shows that treating it as an asset class leads to a logical contradiction then all that's left is the cult-like belief system which is irrational.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    9. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 25
      Replying to @smdiehl @djswagerman

      The belief system is not irrational, though, just pretty weird. You can tell a story about how an entirely new financial system will burst from the chest of the dying world, Alien-style, and cryptocurrency value will spike as the entire economy is renominated in BTC/Doge/etc.

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 25
      Replying to @Pinboard @smdiehl @djswagerman

      Taleb's analysis (completely sensibly) assumes the continuing existence of things *like* asset classes, governments, cash flows, money, but all of these are en route to oblivion in the eyes of true believers. It's an apocalyptic vision, not an accounting mistake.

      2:21 PM - 25 Jul 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 16 Likes
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      3 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
        1. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 25
          Replying to @Pinboard @djswagerman

          Yes, that's an entirely accurate description of their eschatology. Personally I consider that an irrational/crazy worldview, but from inside that perspective it does have a sort of internal consistency to it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        1. ykoi‏ @ykoi17921727 Jul 26
          Replying to @Pinboard @smdiehl @djswagerman

          I know most people in crypto are ponzi freaks, but i'm also completely certain we'll live without all the things you just mentioned, at some point.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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