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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 24

      Taleb's argument is indisputable. When bitcoin failed as a payment system and became an income-free speculative asset then its terminal value is contingent on expectation of infinite greater fools and thus its present value cannot be anything but zero.https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204 

      86 replies 225 retweets 1,186 likes
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 24
      Replying to @smdiehl

      * assuming rational actors

      3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
    3. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 24
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Even in the presence of irrational actors, you still need an infinite chain of them to have non-zero present value. That's not physically realisable. Market value could still be non-zero in this model though.

      9 replies 3 retweets 77 likes
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 24
      Replying to @smdiehl

      I don't understand the infinite chain part. You just need a floor of true believers to guarantee a non-zero price.

      4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 24
      Replying to @Pinboard

      It's only an argument about present value, not about price.

      3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
    6. Nicholas Weaver‏Verified account @ncweaver Jul 24
      Replying to @smdiehl @Pinboard

      And the floor of believers keep having to add in new $ because of the very negative sum nature of the system.

      3 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
    7. lincolnsmith  🇺🇸‏ @guylincolnsmith Jul 24
      Replying to @ncweaver @smdiehl @Pinboard

      The thing that gives me some pause here is the continued existence of gambling, including of types with zero skill that everyone KNOWS are net negative (ie slots). I don’t see why BTC can’t exist forever as a casino on your phone.

      2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 24
      Replying to @guylincolnsmith @ncweaver @smdiehl

      This is why so many economic arguments about things like cryptocurrency and meme stocks are silly, and looking at Bitcoin or GME as an asset class rather than a social phenomenon takes people to conclusions that don't map onto reality.

      11:45 AM - 24 Jul 2021
      • 8 Likes
      • Mario Average 2% Objective Ruffian The Wizard of sha256 黒田 東彦 stan cryptoshill (3,3) Last Of The Fools lincolnsmith 🇺🇸 jeffburdges
      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. The Wizard of sha256‏ @HellgallopJack Jul 24
          Replying to @Pinboard @guylincolnsmith and

          Yeah I just picked up this book by Robert Shiller and it has given me the fear that crypto will just keep going forever, wasting electricity so people can gamble.https://www.amazon.com/Narrative-Economics-audiobook/dp/B07VZWLRM8/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=narrative+economics&qid=1627158847&sr=8-1 …

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Stephen Diehl‏ @smdiehl Jul 24
          Replying to @HellgallopJack @Pinboard and

          Why government has to come in and stop it. Burning a nation state worth of energy for a casino is absurd.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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