Taleb's argument is indisputable. When bitcoin failed as a payment system and became an income-free speculative asset then its terminal value is contingent on expectation of infinite greater fools and thus its present value cannot be anything but zero.https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204
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Could irrational actors avoid the absorbing barrier forever?
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Not forever--but they can exit beforehand. That's why the "rational actor" comment is so silly. Ignores the most controversial part of the paper and attacks a straw man instead.
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Even in the presence of irrational actors, you still need an infinite chain of them to have non-zero present value. That's not physically realisable. Market value could still be non-zero in this model though.
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Incorrect. It's *assuming ergodicity and an absorbing barrier-- Which is arguably more controversial than some homo economicus baloney.
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