Looks like we're back to an April 2020 retro feel, with "confidence intervals" that predict anything from 0 to millions new infections by mid-August, with 95% certainty!https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1418311164472315907 …
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They are so terrible at this, both from a calculation and a storytelling standpoint. No matter what we do today, we'll blow through 92,000 the first week of August unless some sort of nuclear war or volcano vaporizes a couple hundred million people.
Well.. if you do a log scale it does..but most people can't grok log scale.
c.f. famous quote about everything being linear on a log-log graph with a thick marker
yea but if you average like 20 of them oh man.
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