When you're dealing with a theocrat, you need to at least read the holy texts to understand their decisionmaking. But too much of our discourse about China is still stuck in "time for some GAME THEORY" framings of great power rivalry and economic competition.
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The guy grew up in a cave! His family was burned by the Cultural Revolution, he experienced the chaos of Maoism firsthand, and yet he still became a devout believer. That's an interesting arc. If the guy were Wahhabi or a Scientologist or something we'd be all over it.
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So China is ruled by a true believer with a pressing sense of urgency (national greatness to be attained by 2049, the 100 year anniversary of the PRC). He knows what he stands for. The question is whether we're willing to make an equally vigorous defense of freedom and pluralism
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And the place that will be decided is Taiwan. The crushing of Hong Kong means the end of any hope of annexation under some kind of "One Country, Two Systems" arrangement. The existence of a free Taiwan is intolerable to the CCP. Any attack on Taiwan should be intolerable to us
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It's kind of ironic that Xi's belief in historical inevitability makes a completely avoidable and unnecessary conflict with Taiwan inevitable, at least while he's in power. But that's the road we're on, and we need to stop deluding ourselves that the CCP will be our friend again
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Replying to @Pinboard
I don’t know why China can’t just handle Taiwan with the grace and forbearance that the US shows Cuba…
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Replying to @sutherland_joe
One part of the US/Cuba relationship is a binding promise not to invade the territory, which would be a completely healthy outcome.
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Replying to @Pinboard
“Binding promise”:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion …
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Replying to @sutherland_joe
The promise was part of the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis
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Replying to @Pinboard
So China gets to attempt one invasion (and decades of economic embargoes, assassination attempts etc.) and if it doesn’t work out, then they can make binding promises following the American model of peaceful coexistence with island neighbors?
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You're the one who made a silly analogy to Cuba. Don't ask for my help.
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