So the key thing to understand is that Xi believes he has a scientific theory of history (however baroque that has become), a window of opportunity to make China a great power en route to its final state as communist utopia, and that China without the CCP means anarchy and ruin
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Xi's crushing of a free society in Hong Kong proves that ideological goals come first. In his worldview, you can't even meaningfully separate economics and ideology. And Xi is willing to pay any price in the pursuit of consolidating power, since he knows history is on his side
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When you're dealing with a theocrat, you need to at least read the holy texts to understand their decisionmaking. But too much of our discourse about China is still stuck in "time for some GAME THEORY" framings of great power rivalry and economic competition.
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The guy grew up in a cave! His family was burned by the Cultural Revolution, he experienced the chaos of Maoism firsthand, and yet he still became a devout believer. That's an interesting arc. If the guy were Wahhabi or a Scientologist or something we'd be all over it.
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So China is ruled by a true believer with a pressing sense of urgency (national greatness to be attained by 2049, the 100 year anniversary of the PRC). He knows what he stands for. The question is whether we're willing to make an equally vigorous defense of freedom and pluralism
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And the place that will be decided is Taiwan. The crushing of Hong Kong means the end of any hope of annexation under some kind of "One Country, Two Systems" arrangement. The existence of a free Taiwan is intolerable to the CCP. Any attack on Taiwan should be intolerable to us
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It's kind of ironic that Xi's belief in historical inevitability makes a completely avoidable and unnecessary conflict with Taiwan inevitable, at least while he's in power. But that's the road we're on, and we need to stop deluding ourselves that the CCP will be our friend again
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What the West owes China is a clear and unequivocal articulation of our values: equality, democracy, pluralism, freedom, and the rule of law. There are over a billion people in China being denied these fundamental rights, and when we fail to speak for them, we diminish ourselves.
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To the extent that standing up for our basic beliefs kicks globalization in the nuts, we're going to have to accept it and find ways to work around it. We can't make who we *are* contingent on what's economically beneficial. Xi understands that, but I'm not sure our leaders do.
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I didn't come here to blog
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