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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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Joined July 2009

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      Pinboard Retweeted TechCheck

      Thanks so much to TechCheck for having me on! Let me expand a bit on what I think the structural China problem is. The country is basically a theocracy, but since Deng's time it has been ruled pragmatically by rulers who were willing to interpret the faith quite broadly indeedhttps://twitter.com/CNBCTechCheck/status/1416064661380796416 …

      Pinboard added,

      0:39
      TechCheckVerified account @CNBCTechCheck
      "The rational thing for Apple to do is to try as quickly as it can to get its manufacturing out of China," says @Pinboard Founder Maciej Ceglowski on what Apple's plans should be as the Chinese government continues to crack down on tech companies. pic.twitter.com/3m2SfFAylH
      1 reply 36 retweets 130 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      In this framing, the Chinese state religion is Marxism/Leninism/Mao Zedong Thought. Marxism of course doesn't think of itself in those terms—it claims to be a scientific theory of history—but treating it as a religious faith gets you to interesting conclusions, so let's do it.

      5 replies 5 retweets 38 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      Until recently the modus vivendi with China was that the CCP could try however it wanted to explain that it was still a Communist Party domestically, but in its external relationships the country would fully participate in global capitalism and not get all weird on us about it

      1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      However in Xi, China has a true believer as paramount leader. Xi's vision of national greatness is a communist Chinese state that makes flexible use of the tools of capitalism, but never loses sight of the ultimate goal of surpassing it. There are two mortal threats to his vision

      2 replies 2 retweets 28 likes
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    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      The first mortal threat is any form of political pluralism. Xi understands that allowing political dissent in China, and therefore a historically honest appraisal of the CCP, would mean the end of the one-party rule. Put crudely, it's because the CCP killed an awful lot of people

      2 replies 3 retweets 37 likes
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    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      The second mortal threat is the existence of an independent Taiwan, a prosperous, democratic Chinese society that is doing just great without all the ideological and historical baggage that Xi argues was necessary for mainland China to reach its present level of prosperity.

      1 reply 5 retweets 48 likes
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    7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      When your whole thesis is that only the Communist Party can end a century of national humiliation and subjugation, and there's a thriving democratic society of your countrymen next door proving you are full of shit, this is not a comfortable situation to be dictatoring in.

      1 reply 17 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

      So the key thing to understand is that Xi believes he has a scientific theory of history (however baroque that has become), a window of opportunity to make China a great power en route to its final state as communist utopia, and that China without the CCP means anarchy and ruin

      9:26 AM - 16 Jul 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 20 Likes
      • Impulse welfare extremist ✝️ Voting Rights Now GrumpyBen AI Narc is out of coffice Nied Todd Bony Millennial Antimillenarian Mary Branscombe
      2 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          Xi's crushing of a free society in Hong Kong proves that ideological goals come first. In his worldview, you can't even meaningfully separate economics and ideology. And Xi is willing to pay any price in the pursuit of consolidating power, since he knows history is on his side

          1 reply 3 retweets 25 likes
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        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          When you're dealing with a theocrat, you need to at least read the holy texts to understand their decisionmaking. But too much of our discourse about China is still stuck in "time for some GAME THEORY" framings of great power rivalry and economic competition.

          1 reply 3 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          The guy grew up in a cave! His family was burned by the Cultural Revolution, he experienced the chaos of Maoism firsthand, and yet he still became a devout believer. That's an interesting arc. If the guy were Wahhabi or a Scientologist or something we'd be all over it.

          4 replies 3 retweets 29 likes
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        5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          So China is ruled by a true believer with a pressing sense of urgency (national greatness to be attained by 2049, the 100 year anniversary of the PRC). He knows what he stands for. The question is whether we're willing to make an equally vigorous defense of freedom and pluralism

          1 reply 5 retweets 26 likes
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        6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          And the place that will be decided is Taiwan. The crushing of Hong Kong means the end of any hope of annexation under some kind of "One Country, Two Systems" arrangement. The existence of a free Taiwan is intolerable to the CCP. Any attack on Taiwan should be intolerable to us

          2 replies 5 retweets 47 likes
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        7. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          It's kind of ironic that Xi's belief in historical inevitability makes a completely avoidable and unnecessary conflict with Taiwan inevitable, at least while he's in power. But that's the road we're on, and we need to stop deluding ourselves that the CCP will be our friend again

          3 replies 3 retweets 36 likes
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        8. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          What the West owes China is a clear and unequivocal articulation of our values: equality, democracy, pluralism, freedom, and the rule of law. There are over a billion people in China being denied these fundamental rights, and when we fail to speak for them, we diminish ourselves.

          3 replies 12 retweets 74 likes
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        9. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jul 16

          To the extent that standing up for our basic beliefs kicks globalization in the nuts, we're going to have to accept it and find ways to work around it. We can't make who we *are* contingent on what's economically beneficial. Xi understands that, but I'm not sure our leaders do.

          3 replies 12 retweets 60 likes
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        10. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. lostinthe21stcentury‏ @beanoriginalist Jul 16
          Replying to @Pinboard

          they have scientific certainty that their version of socialism will win against the capitalists from marx, that they are always on the right side of history. hence the refusal to reckon with any mistakes the party has made in the past.they have never managed to escape the cycle.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. lostinthe21stcentury‏ @beanoriginalist Jul 16
          Replying to @beanoriginalist @Pinboard

          there is a reason why the ccp stumble across generational disasters every generation, because that s the circular path of how they think and operate. there is no small valve that they can strategically set off in order to avoid a massive one.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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