again, I think you have to consider a) the long timeline it took to definitively establish an intermediate host for SARS, b) that the political volatility of the work involved in China is much greater than in 2003, which considerably impedes *even mundane* investigation
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard
Look at the timelines and state of knowledge on where Ebola or AIDS emerged from, say, and 'we haven't found a clear answer 18 months later' looks ... entirely normal.
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer
This is more like Ebola II emerged down the street from the National Ebola Center. It's pretty important to find out more.
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Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer
My main qualm with you is the idea you're promulgating that there's something a priori unlikely about a lab leak origin. Lab leaks are common, zoonotic transfer is common, pandemics are extremely rare. Having an example of the latter gives us nothing solid to reason from
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Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer
there are zero known instances of a pandemic occurring due to a lab leak, and many known instances of pandemics occurring due to zoonotic transfer. please just stop.
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Otomics Retweeted Trevor Bedford
You should learn more before saying this.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1400237542100799490 …
Otomics added,
Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrbOn the other hand, of the recent influenza pandemics (H2N2 in 1957, H3N2 in 1968, H1N1 in 1977, H1N1 in 2009), one of the four (1977 H1N1) is conclusively a reintroduction into the human population via some lab intermediary. Lab accidents do happen. 5/8Show this thread3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @otomics @tw1terstolemyac and
Allison Retweeted Gigi Gronvall
Probably not a “lab accident” but it doesn’t really matter- that’s exactly one ever vs zoonotic diseases emerging ALL THE TIME. Like, people don’t realize.https://twitter.com/ggronvall/status/1399822348942024709 …
Allison added,
Gigi GronvallVerified account @ggronvallBecause of the attention on COVID-19's origin, many are learning about the mysterious flu season of 1977, the so-called "Russian Flu." It was nearly identical to a 1950's H1N1 strain. It was def not a natural outbreak, but also not likely a lab accident. https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.01013-15 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 1 like -
Replying to @fallenigloos @otomics and
Allison Retweeted Amy Maxmen, PhD
I really think a lot of the mess here is people just not understanding the relative frequencies of different events.https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1400169680480792576 …
Allison added,
Amy Maxmen, PhDVerified account @amymaxmenA man in China was just diagnosed with a novel influenza virus from birds. In May, a Malaysian patient with mysterious pneumonia was infected with a novel coronavirus. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab456/6278597 … Spillovers happen frequently. Expect it & prepare for it. https://apnews.com/article/china-bird-flu-flu-health-b5862e1d9892b25fdb470abf30432289?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP …2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @fallenigloos @otomics and
You're conflating two different things, occurence of novel virus pandemic vs zoonotic disease jumping to humans. Pandemics are *rare*. Diseases jumping to humans without causing pandemic, and lab accidents that don't cause a pandemic, are both common.
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Every pandemic minus *possibly* one makes for a pretty strong prior probability- you’re going to need some pretty good evidence to shift the posterior, and so far there’s none. Seems pretty straightforward tbh!
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If your prior probability includes pandemics from before there *were* virology labs, then you are going to get a mistaken sense of confidence. Similar to arguing no blackout has ever been caused by ransomware, therefore you can dismiss it as the cause of any future major blackout
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Again, I think there’s just a straight up widespread misunderstanding about the frequencies of events.
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