My main qualm with you is the idea you're promulgating that there's something a priori unlikely about a lab leak origin. Lab leaks are common, zoonotic transfer is common, pandemics are extremely rare. Having an example of the latter gives us nothing solid to reason from
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Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer
there are zero known instances of a pandemic occurring due to a lab leak, and many known instances of pandemics occurring due to zoonotic transfer. please just stop.
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Otomics Retweeted Trevor Bedford
You should learn more before saying this.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1400237542100799490 …
Otomics added,
Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrbOn the other hand, of the recent influenza pandemics (H2N2 in 1957, H3N2 in 1968, H1N1 in 1977, H1N1 in 2009), one of the four (1977 H1N1) is conclusively a reintroduction into the human population via some lab intermediary. Lab accidents do happen. 5/8Show this thread3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @otomics @tw1terstolemyac and
Allison Retweeted Gigi Gronvall
Probably not a “lab accident” but it doesn’t really matter- that’s exactly one ever vs zoonotic diseases emerging ALL THE TIME. Like, people don’t realize.https://twitter.com/ggronvall/status/1399822348942024709 …
Allison added,
Gigi GronvallVerified account @ggronvallBecause of the attention on COVID-19's origin, many are learning about the mysterious flu season of 1977, the so-called "Russian Flu." It was nearly identical to a 1950's H1N1 strain. It was def not a natural outbreak, but also not likely a lab accident. https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.01013-15 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 1 like -
Replying to @fallenigloos @otomics and
Allison Retweeted Amy Maxmen, PhD
I really think a lot of the mess here is people just not understanding the relative frequencies of different events.https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1400169680480792576 …
Allison added,
Amy Maxmen, PhDVerified account @amymaxmenA man in China was just diagnosed with a novel influenza virus from birds. In May, a Malaysian patient with mysterious pneumonia was infected with a novel coronavirus. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab456/6278597 … Spillovers happen frequently. Expect it & prepare for it. https://apnews.com/article/china-bird-flu-flu-health-b5862e1d9892b25fdb470abf30432289?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP …2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @fallenigloos @otomics and
You're conflating two different things, occurence of novel virus pandemic vs zoonotic disease jumping to humans. Pandemics are *rare*. Diseases jumping to humans without causing pandemic, and lab accidents that don't cause a pandemic, are both common.
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Replying to @Pinboard @fallenigloos and
I love this language of 'lab accidents' that is deliberately vague. Please name one known incidence of not even a pandemic, an epidemic caused by a leak from a BSL4 lab.
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Replying to @Pinboard @fallenigloos and
that's not an epidemic. it was also not a bsl4 lab.
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Replying to @tw1terstolemyac @Pinboard and
(at least not to the best of my knowledge, and also lol at linking wikipedia articles. you keep telling me things *I already know*.)
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It's hard to tell who knows what on this site, since we haven't interacted before. I'm sorry I don't have a hipster off-wikipedia lab leak epidemic to share with you.
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Replying to @Pinboard @fallenigloos and
again, do you know *why* I'm specifying an incidence of a significant leak from a BSL4 lab? do you know what a BSL4 lab is?
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