99% of the recent discussion around it is bullshit. The original claim remains exactly as plausible as it was a year ago; theoretically possible, extremely unlikely.
You're conflating two different things, occurence of novel virus pandemic vs zoonotic disease jumping to humans. Pandemics are *rare*. Diseases jumping to humans without causing pandemic, and lab accidents that don't cause a pandemic, are both common.
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I love this language of 'lab accidents' that is deliberately vague. Please name one known incidence of not even a pandemic, an epidemic caused by a leak from a BSL4 lab.
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Every pandemic minus *possibly* one makes for a pretty strong prior probability- you’re going to need some pretty good evidence to shift the posterior, and so far there’s none. Seems pretty straightforward tbh!
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If your prior probability includes pandemics from before there *were* virology labs, then you are going to get a mistaken sense of confidence. Similar to arguing no blackout has ever been caused by ransomware, therefore you can dismiss it as the cause of any future major blackout
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