That's why I get particularly annoyed by people who ask me to ignore sloppy research or hysterical claims because 'we're on the same side.' There is no absence of evidence that China is a massive human rights abuser and an aggressively revisionist power. We don't need bullshit.
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Replying to @Pinboard
99% of the recent discussion around it is bullshit. The original claim remains exactly as plausible as it was a year ago; theoretically possible, extremely unlikely.
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer
I'll agree that the recent discussion sheds no light. The claim has increased in plausibility since last year because of negative evidence (no intermediate host identified or progress on that front). I see the odds as more like an even split. If I had to bet, I'd bet lab origin
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Replying to @Pinboard
again, I think you have to consider a) the long timeline it took to definitively establish an intermediate host for SARS, b) that the political volatility of the work involved in China is much greater than in 2003, which considerably impedes *even mundane* investigation
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard
Look at the timelines and state of knowledge on where Ebola or AIDS emerged from, say, and 'we haven't found a clear answer 18 months later' looks ... entirely normal.
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Replying to @BeijingPalmer
This is more like Ebola II emerged down the street from the National Ebola Center. It's pretty important to find out more.
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Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer
My main qualm with you is the idea you're promulgating that there's something a priori unlikely about a lab leak origin. Lab leaks are common, zoonotic transfer is common, pandemics are extremely rare. Having an example of the latter gives us nothing solid to reason from
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Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer
there are zero known instances of a pandemic occurring due to a lab leak, and many known instances of pandemics occurring due to zoonotic transfer. please just stop.
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Otomics Retweeted Trevor Bedford
You should learn more before saying this.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1400237542100799490 …
Otomics added,
Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrbOn the other hand, of the recent influenza pandemics (H2N2 in 1957, H3N2 in 1968, H1N1 in 1977, H1N1 in 2009), one of the four (1977 H1N1) is conclusively a reintroduction into the human population via some lab intermediary. Lab accidents do happen. 5/8Show this thread3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
Even if we didn't have the counterexample, the logic would be wrong. Pandemics are rare events, and modern labs just haven't been around long.
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