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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Okay, but the claim is not bullshit.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      99% of the recent discussion around it is bullshit. The original claim remains exactly as plausible as it was a year ago; theoretically possible, extremely unlikely.

      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      I'll agree that the recent discussion sheds no light. The claim has increased in plausibility since last year because of negative evidence (no intermediate host identified or progress on that front). I see the odds as more like an even split. If I had to bet, I'd bet lab origin

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      again, I think you have to consider a) the long timeline it took to definitively establish an intermediate host for SARS, b) that the political volatility of the work involved in China is much greater than in 2003, which considerably impedes *even mundane* investigation

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    5. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard

      Look at the timelines and state of knowledge on where Ebola or AIDS emerged from, say, and 'we haven't found a clear answer 18 months later' looks ... entirely normal.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    6. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      This is more like Ebola II emerged down the street from the National Ebola Center. It's pretty important to find out more.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I think, as I've said before, that you way overweigh the significance of it being *discovered* - not emerging - in a very large city. It is a remote possibility that is worth investigating. That investigation is also politically impossible, as we saw with the botched WHO report.

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    8. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard

      again, if we map the distance between where we *detect* outbreaks and where they turn out to have originated, it is usually quite considerable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      That very fact makes it quite suggestive that we detected the outbreak down the street from the Outbreak Center!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      except that the center is in a very large city that is a transport hub, and we did not detect it 'down the street' from it but 'in the same city of millions of people'

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      The early infection event at the wet market took place quite literally down the street from the virology lab. It's not proof of anything, but it's also a hell of a coincidence.

      5:07 PM - 3 Jun 2021
      • 1 Like
      • samuel kerr
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
          Replying to @Pinboard

          the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has the BSL-4 lab, is on the other side of the city. The Wuhan Institute of Infectious Diseases, a separate facility, is 'down the road' in the sense of 'a very long Chinese thoroughway.'

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
          Replying to @BeijingPalmer

          My apologies for conflating the two

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation

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