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@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3

      Matt Pottinger isn't pushing this in order to advance his views on China. He's pushing this in order to try and launder his own reputation as part of a racist administration that lied repeatedly about the coronavirus.

      1 reply 19 retweets 164 likes
      Show this thread
    2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3

      That's why I get particularly annoyed by people who ask me to ignore sloppy research or hysterical claims because 'we're on the same side.' There is no absence of evidence that China is a massive human rights abuser and an aggressively revisionist power. We don't need bullshit.

      6 replies 17 retweets 188 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Okay, but the claim is not bullshit.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      99% of the recent discussion around it is bullshit. The original claim remains exactly as plausible as it was a year ago; theoretically possible, extremely unlikely.

      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      I'll agree that the recent discussion sheds no light. The claim has increased in plausibility since last year because of negative evidence (no intermediate host identified or progress on that front). I see the odds as more like an even split. If I had to bet, I'd bet lab origin

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      again, I think you have to consider a) the long timeline it took to definitively establish an intermediate host for SARS, b) that the political volatility of the work involved in China is much greater than in 2003, which considerably impedes *even mundane* investigation

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    7. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard

      Look at the timelines and state of knowledge on where Ebola or AIDS emerged from, say, and 'we haven't found a clear answer 18 months later' looks ... entirely normal.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    8. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      This is more like Ebola II emerged down the street from the National Ebola Center. It's pretty important to find out more.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    9. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I think, as I've said before, that you way overweigh the significance of it being *discovered* - not emerging - in a very large city. It is a remote possibility that is worth investigating. That investigation is also politically impossible, as we saw with the botched WHO report.

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    10. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard

      again, if we map the distance between where we *detect* outbreaks and where they turn out to have originated, it is usually quite considerable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      That very fact makes it quite suggestive that we detected the outbreak down the street from the Outbreak Center!

      5:00 PM - 3 Jun 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • samuel kerr
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer Jun 3
          Replying to @Pinboard

          except that the center is in a very large city that is a transport hub, and we did not detect it 'down the street' from it but 'in the same city of millions of people'

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Jun 3
          Replying to @BeijingPalmer

          The early infection event at the wet market took place quite literally down the street from the virology lab. It's not proof of anything, but it's also a hell of a coincidence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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