People's thinking on this topic is tied in pretzels. The origins of covid matter because they will help us prevent the next pandemic. Lab escape and direct zoonotic transfer have radically different implications for how we do that. This is a public health issue, not geopoliticshttps://twitter.com/AliVelshi/status/1398701148333395968 …
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China is an authoritarian surveillance state. They have ample relevant data to help determine the origins of covid, and can choose to share it or not. But our search for the answer should not be conditioned on their willingness to cooperate, or the consequences of making them mad
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Chinese citizens, because they live under authoritarian rule, are unable to pressure their government from within for a candid investigation into the origins of covid. The only possible source of pressure comes from abroad, and we can't abrogate our duty to seek answers.
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If it turns out this was an iatrogenic pandemic, then that also has immense global implications for how we study dangerous pathogens in the future. This is not a "blame China" issue but a basic question of risk.
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Replying to @Pinboard
But why wait? Even if this one wasn’t, the case for risk mitigation is the same.
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Not necessarily. Think of the NTSB investigating a plane crash. The investigation identities where each safety device (mechanical and operational) failed and why. Then it identifies new devices that would have prevented the accident.
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They don't say... "well, this plane crashed in the mountains so we'll suggest planes fly higher because then all planes would miss the mountains and have more energy to find a safe place to land." ... Even though flying higher is a risk mitigation that almost always pays off.
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tbc, I agree that there are likely many ways to improve future outbreak responses that are independent of a root cause analysis, but that doesn't mean one isn't necessary.
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This is a really good point. Forgotten in the lab leak / ate a bat dichotomy is that there are a zillion different ways that the former could have happened, ranging from "dropped a test tube of collected sample" to "active research on potentiating viruses". The difference matters
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