the timeframe for working out the exact path of SARS in 2003 from horseshoe bats to Asian palm civets to humans was *fourteen years*. we might work out the course of this one quicker, but there's no guarantees.
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the problem is that we are now working in a situation of 'this killed millions of people' and the incentive of *everybody* to cover up the first cases is far larger than for SARS.
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That is very true, too. But there are things working for us—this kind of trail of early evidence is easy to suppress but hard to fake convincingly. And China has a growing incentive to demonstrate that it did not originate in a lab leak.
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We figure this stuff out in the most rugged, remote places, so doing it in a surveillance-saturated country that boasts about five thousand years of record keeping should be doable
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