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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27

      thing that has happened a reasonable amount: lab accidents thing that has not happened before: lab accidents resulting in the release of a previously unknown virus thing that has happened a lot before: zoonotic transfer producing previously unknown viruses

      72 replies 279 retweets 1,604 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Your reasoning is flawed in two ways here. First, it would go through if there were regular novel virus pandemics, but they are rare, and so you can't make this inference. Second, lab accident release does not preclude zoonotic transfer as the original origin.

      5 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
    3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
      Replying to @Pinboard

      novel viruses are rare but there have been a lot! novel viruses that produce pandemics is a tiny category. on the second, sure, it's possible but ... why imagine an extra step that we have no evidence for, instead of just good old, has happened a bunch zoonotic transfer

      2 replies 0 retweets 45 likes
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      *Pandemics* are a tiny category so you can't reason back the way you did. On the second point, there's a virus lab that studies these viruses in the NYC-sized city where the pandemic started. This is not the remote wilds of Yunnan where weird animals abound. That's suggestive.

      3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
    5. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

      A lot of this discussion implies that there's a perfectly well-documented zoonotic pathway that is being shouted down by conspiracists but that's not my understanding. The virus lab leak hypothesis answers the difficult question of how a weird zoonotic strain ended up in Wuhan

      7 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    6. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
      Replying to @Pinboard

      this is not a difficult question! the virus was detected in a major city *because it's a major city.* if it originated in the countryside, a handful of people getting sick would be noise.

      2 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
    7. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard

      also, we *know about it in the first place* because some chance brought it to a major city. if it had burnt out in some mountain village - as lots of new viruses have done in unrecorded centuries - we wouldn't be having this discussion.

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
    8. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Chance brought it to a major city far from the habitat of the putative animal host, but one that happens to have a research facility for the study of exactly this family of viruses. If there's a trail of early disease leading out to someplace remote, we should track that down.

      3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    9. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
      Replying to @Pinboard

      sure, and it will probably take years to do so *as it did for SARS.*

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Okay! So we agree on something!

      1:45 PM - 27 May 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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