thing that has happened a reasonable amount: lab accidents thing that has not happened before: lab accidents resulting in the release of a previously unknown virus thing that has happened a lot before: zoonotic transfer producing previously unknown viruses
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I think the mistake here is in assuming "same realm of probability" because the evolutionary throughput of nature/in-the-wild dwarfs all laboratories on earth combined. Similarly total amount of catalogued and/or captive organisms and sequences is a sliver compared to nature.
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The stuff from nature is collected and put in the laboratories to study. I don't think anyone except kooks argues against the ultimate zoonotic origin of this virus.
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