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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27

      thing that has happened a reasonable amount: lab accidents thing that has not happened before: lab accidents resulting in the release of a previously unknown virus thing that has happened a lot before: zoonotic transfer producing previously unknown viruses

      72 replies 279 retweets 1,604 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Your reasoning is flawed in two ways here. First, it would go through if there were regular novel virus pandemics, but they are rare, and so you can't make this inference. Second, lab accident release does not preclude zoonotic transfer as the original origin.

      5 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
    3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
      Replying to @Pinboard

      novel viruses are rare but there have been a lot! novel viruses that produce pandemics is a tiny category. on the second, sure, it's possible but ... why imagine an extra step that we have no evidence for, instead of just good old, has happened a bunch zoonotic transfer

      2 replies 0 retweets 45 likes
    4. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      *Pandemics* are a tiny category so you can't reason back the way you did. On the second point, there's a virus lab that studies these viruses in the NYC-sized city where the pandemic started. This is not the remote wilds of Yunnan where weird animals abound. That's suggestive.

      3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

      A lot of this discussion implies that there's a perfectly well-documented zoonotic pathway that is being shouted down by conspiracists but that's not my understanding. The virus lab leak hypothesis answers the difficult question of how a weird zoonotic strain ended up in Wuhan

      1:27 PM - 27 May 2021
      • 9 Likes
      • David Roy Gerard Stanislav jjrs Gabriel Shepperd Juggalos For Responsible Flushing🔰🌇🧦🥟 Sean Brocklebank
      7 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          This is not a convincing argument at all that the virus was released from a lab. But it is absolutely a plausible candidate explanation in the same realm of probability as direct transfer, which is not how you are framing it. We need evidence to decide which (if either) is true

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Omar‏ @doesnotexist May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          I think the mistake here is in assuming "same realm of probability" because the evolutionary throughput of nature/in-the-wild dwarfs all laboratories on earth combined. Similarly total amount of catalogued and/or captive organisms and sequences is a sliver compared to nature.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard

          this is not a difficult question! the virus was detected in a major city *because it's a major city.* if it originated in the countryside, a handful of people getting sick would be noise.

          2 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
        3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
          Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Pinboard

          also, we *know about it in the first place* because some chance brought it to a major city. if it had burnt out in some mountain village - as lots of new viruses have done in unrecorded centuries - we wouldn't be having this discussion.

          1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. lw‏ @lw208xx May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          It took 14 years to nail down exactly how zoonotic transfer of SARS happened, also from bats. It's normal not to have an answer to this right now.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9?fbclid=IwAR0BJ3kvY599gjeqaCqA-rIV4065OB9pG6k46-uY1-PQEoBpNHlo--pZfaA …

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @lw208xx @BeijingPalmer

          Completely agree that not having the answer is the correct stance here.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Der Freiherr von Giebmehr‏ @Tulletilsynet May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          "How in the world would a communicable disease make its way to the transport hub of a vast, populous region?"

          0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Dr. 反Δ McStuckhereface  💉 💉‏ @Comparativist May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          Dr. 反Δ McStuckhereface  💉 💉 Retweeted OSINT HK

          I'm really surprised this version of 'accidental lab release' didn't get any traction. The same guy takes off his PPE in the cave during their promotional videohttps://twitter.com/OSINTHK/status/1228921280243490816?s=19 …

          Dr. 反Δ McStuckhereface  💉 💉 added,

          OSINT HK @OSINTHK
          What wasn't shown in this video but described elsewhere: - several exposures to bat urine and blood - forgetting to wear PPE gear - using fireworks to catch wild bats. https://twitter.com/OSINTHK/status/1228708758265581568?s=19 … pic.twitter.com/9JX9hrXkCm
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @Comparativist @BeijingPalmer

          Something that it's weird to see get left out of the discussion is the high baseline rate of containment failures overall. In the US, according to DCD data, there were *two a week* in 2010 at high containment level facilities. These kinds of screw-ups are absolutely routine.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. tomography  💉 💉‏ @pinchofginger May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          “Why didn’t we see it until it hit a major population centre?” isn’t difficult to answer. It’s a function of host density (exponential takeoff), healthcare system sophistication/test availability (delayed identification), virus causing mild disease in most (occult spread).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @pinchofginger @BeijingPalmer

          What luck that the coronavirus lab was right there to help identify it!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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