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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27

      thing that has happened a reasonable amount: lab accidents thing that has not happened before: lab accidents resulting in the release of a previously unknown virus thing that has happened a lot before: zoonotic transfer producing previously unknown viruses

      72 replies 279 retweets 1,604 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer

      Your reasoning is flawed in two ways here. First, it would go through if there were regular novel virus pandemics, but they are rare, and so you can't make this inference. Second, lab accident release does not preclude zoonotic transfer as the original origin.

      1:17 PM - 27 May 2021
      • 31 Likes
      • Amir More Raul Ascencio kennyCFC Gerard EstherMaria - Talking Nonsense, Not Fooling Anyone
      5 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          We know containment breaches are routine (96 reported to the CDC in 2010). Think of it another way: the virus does not check to see whether it is novel before deciding whether to escapehttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4611044/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Joi Ito's Jibo sez  🧘‏ @JMEightDigits May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          This is the single most important number in the entire conversation, and yet the Discourse is "that's a crazy conspiracy," "why does it matter," and "nuke China"

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard

          novel viruses are rare but there have been a lot! novel viruses that produce pandemics is a tiny category. on the second, sure, it's possible but ... why imagine an extra step that we have no evidence for, instead of just good old, has happened a bunch zoonotic transfer

          2 replies 0 retweets 45 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @BeijingPalmer

          *Pandemics* are a tiny category so you can't reason back the way you did. On the second point, there's a virus lab that studies these viruses in the NYC-sized city where the pandemic started. This is not the remote wilds of Yunnan where weird animals abound. That's suggestive.

          3 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Nick Stoler‏ @NickStoler May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          Dude, near-pandemics from novel coronaviruses alone have been relatively common. SARS and MERS happened within the last two decades.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard May 27
          Replying to @NickStoler @BeijingPalmer

          Yeah, and those near pandemics are why they build the big coronavirus lab to study those viruses in the city where the full pandemic then originated

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Butler of Dogs  🇺🇸 🇵🇷 🌍 🌱 💚‏ @toxicpath May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          what's the point of an unfalsifiable hypothesis?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Uuuo‏ @Uuwuovo May 27
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer

          Wait. Don't tell me you're actually taking this fringe conspiracy theory with any amount of respect and seriousness.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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