The bedrock of cryptocurrency belief is the group of people who find it compelling for either a) ideological reasons or b) because they are enchanted with the technology. Those true believers exist and they will talk your ear off.
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The layer around that is kind of the "meme layer"—people who are not directly beguiled by Merkle trees or anarchoderptarianism, but recognize that cryptocurrency is a form of sticking it to the Man, and find it a source of countercultural enjoyment and sometimes giant windfalls.
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Then there is a simply vast number of people who treat Bitcoin as a lottery ticket that can't lose. Their numbers grow as the bubble inflates. And then there's a final layer of savvy financial market types who are like wolves in a henhouse, going to town on easy winnings
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Replying to @Pinboard
It feels like there's an opportunity here from being a contrarian wolf, but it's surprisingly hard to predict herd movements, even when you can identify something as a herd phenomenon...
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In the apocryphal Keynes quote, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
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Replying to @henryfarrell @EthanZ
My argument is that no one here is being irrational
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Aren’t your people who think that Bitcoin is a lottery ticket that can’t lose irrational? There are some economists who argue that bubbles can be perfectly rational, but sociologically and historically, the traditional dupes, speculators and bezzle approach seems the right one.
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Replying to @henryfarrell @Pinboard
"Can't lose" is irrational. Lottery ticket is rational and is being reinforced day by day by stories of ordinary folks becoming crypto millionaires.
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The piece by
@kevinroose about the dogecoin billionaire is fascinating, in that it posits that some understanding of net culture might position you for success in this bizarre marketplace.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/14/technology/hes-a-dogecoin-millionaire-and-hes-not-selling.html …1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @EthanZ @henryfarrell and
Okay, millionaire. And probably thousandaire today. But someone's going to run one of these memestocks into billions at some point and raise questions about whether entirely different dynamics are now at play in markets...
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The one thing the memelords have got right is that cryptocurrency is the one window they have into the massive concentration of wealth at the top of the financial system. The actual winners are somewhat randomly chosen, but there's no other way Dogecoin dude will ever own a yacht
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