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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Apr 22

      I still don't understand why this is happening in April 2021 instead of April 2020. At the start of the pandemic I wondered a lot about the uneven global spread of COVID. It seemed everyone had a confident explanation, but all the explanations were different. Still the case.pic.twitter.com/eEF7zxbcNi

      9 replies 6 retweets 69 likes
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      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Apr 22

      So many dogs that didn't bark in COVID—Nigeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, the poorest countries in Africa (where so many die of easily treatable respiratory diseases). Was overdispersion enough to explain the uneven spread? If you know of papers that model it, link me!

      8:51 AM - 22 Apr 2021
      • 17 Likes
      • nikete Brendan Dolan-Gavitt A clusterfuck of internalized chaos Donkey Parade Sara Manns Ashtar Suggestion Joi Ito's Jibo sez 🧘 Tree of Grove
      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Apr 22

          Or, you know, make up a reason and tweet it. Last year the popular answers were that countries were hiding bodies, climate, TB vaccine, genetics, strong seasonality. This year I suggest variants, lockdown fatigue, and the moral loosening of society, bringing down the wrath of God

          4 replies 2 retweets 35 likes
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        1. shale‏ @logicregressor Apr 22
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Economists hypothesis was that domestic travel helped spread in India (when compared vs Pakistan)https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/09/30/is-pakistan-really-handling-the-pandemic-better-than-india …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Karthik Sethuraman‏ @karthikramen Apr 22
          Replying to @Pinboard

          the nihilistic answer is that the process is just extremely chaotic (in the mathematical sense) and any answer we give will be a just-so story --https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7574863/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Apr 22
          Replying to @karthikramen

          Yeah, I'm down for that explanation. Just want to read more about the modeling, whether in support or against that

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. nikete‏ @nikete Apr 22
          Replying to @Pinboard

          for pre-registered model forecasts (i.e. where you can compare them based on how they forecast into the future) we only now have US (for a while) and recently EU (since a few weeks) , I don't think a forecast hub exists for the rest of the world ;-/

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Apr 22
          Replying to @nikete

          We'll always have Tyler Cowen, @patio11 and their preposterous (cryptographically hashed!) claim that Japan would be in ruins by April 2020, with half a million cases, overwhelmed hospitals, and the worst crisis since the war.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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