So many dogs that didn't bark in COVID—Nigeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, the poorest countries in Africa (where so many die of easily treatable respiratory diseases). Was overdispersion enough to explain the uneven spread? If you know of papers that model it, link me!
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Or, you know, make up a reason and tweet it. Last year the popular answers were that countries were hiding bodies, climate, TB vaccine, genetics, strong seasonality. This year I suggest variants, lockdown fatigue, and the moral loosening of society, bringing down the wrath of God
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more transmissible variants ?
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Here we go again
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What are ones you might subscribe to?
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I'm curious whether just the math of overdispersion is enough, that you need a certain amount of spread and chained clusters for it to explode into a crisis
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They had a 21 day lockdown starting mid-March. It was fairly aggressive at least in theory. Combined with global travel shutting down, probably had a pretty strong mitigation effect. I dont know if any countries have political will to reinstate such an aggressive lockdown again.
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"You don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline" - Fauci, Anthony, March 25 2020 The Mosquito Principle https://koranteng.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-mosquito-principle.html …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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India went into lockdown in March, and only really emerged in January, at which time the widespread perception was that COVID was over. Cue a return to indoor workplaces, massive political rallies for 6 separate state elections, and a million person religious festival.
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For clarity are you saying India was in lockdown from March 2020 thru Jan 2021?
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