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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      The point here is that it's not that B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 have unique mutations not present in other circulating viruses, it's that these VOC lineages have acquired some of the most extensive suites of spike S1 mutations seen in circulating viruses. 7/15pic.twitter.com/bwnOGNToRs

      1 reply 73 retweets 276 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      Since January, there has been frequent emergence of competing lineages with large numbers of spike mutations, but by-and-large B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 have remained at the forefront. 8/15

      2 replies 26 retweets 179 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      Examples of competing lineages of note include B.1.525 (with spike mutations Q52R, 69-70del, 144del, E484K, Q677H and F888L, common in Nigeria https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NGA …) and B.1.617 (with spike mutations E154K, L452R, E484Q and P681R, common in India https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND …). 9/15pic.twitter.com/X1zeGP9YZI

      3 replies 38 retweets 191 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      Though there haven't been obviously superior competitors to B.1.1.7, variant viruses are continuing to emerge across the world. Genomic surveillance should also be global in its endeavor. 10/15

      5 replies 42 retweets 223 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      As discussed previously (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1356997080976289794 …), the currently observed rate of evolution in S1 is rapid compared to the equivalent domain in influenza virus owing to accumulation of S1 mutations in the VOC viruses. 11/15pic.twitter.com/bNAeSHCFbn

      3 replies 41 retweets 194 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      The million dollar question here is, of course, whether this pace of evolution will be sustained year-after-year. I don't have a good answer to this. 12/15

      8 replies 55 retweets 338 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      On one hand, convergence would suggest that in ~1-2 year's time SARS-CoV-2 will have arrived at its destination having stacked up all the relevant mutations that are currently emerging. 13/15

      3 replies 50 retweets 289 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      On the other hand, currently selected mutations are arising in a context of population immunity engendered to original "wild-type" viruses and immunity raised to antigenic drifted viruses like B.1.351 may push evolution in a new direction. 14/15

      5 replies 53 retweets 294 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      This continual cat-and-mouse scenario is what plays out with seasonal influenza, where new viruses emerge and spread, but leave a wake of population immunity that creates pressure for further evolutionary innovation. 15/15

      13 replies 63 retweets 400 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb Apr 14

      (Sorry I've been absent during the past ~2 months. I needed a break from Twitter. I'll try to provide more frequent updates going forward.)

      77 replies 20 retweets 927 likes
      Show this thread
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard Apr 14
      Replying to @trvrb

      Welcome back, and thanks for all you do!

      9:13 AM - 14 Apr 2021
      • 17 Likes
      • Imke Plischko MD _Yuccaldo_ 💉💉+ #FFP2 😷 + #ZeroCovid Phong Nguyen Josh Marantz Matteo Hoch _katiesaurus_ Lacey Andria Krewson Oxana
      0 replies 0 retweets 17 likes

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