Just on a structural level we need polling to be significantly off this year (in whatever direction you prefer) or the spreadsheet gang is going to become unendurable in 2022/2024. The model of politics as weather prediction is self-fulfilling and deeply disempowering
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The same group that understands the dynamic of financial crises (you are almost always right until your models blow up entirely) gives a free pass to ad hoc curve-fitting in political science. And those predictive models in turn influence fundraising and people's decision to run
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Politics is ultimately a creative endeavor, where you search for a story and framing that capture's people imagination and try to create new circumstances in which to win. The analytics project is fundamentally at odds with this and gives us sterile, airless, and timid candidates
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Replying to @Pinboard
Aren’t Bernie and Trump in 2016 pretty significant counterexamples?
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