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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 31 Oct 2020

      Pinboard Retweeted The Recount

      I feel I am off-topic scared by this rally because Reading is a very poor, very Latino city and the fact that Trump finds those voters worth addressing this late in the campaign reinforces my pessimism about the re-election.https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1322636317252030471 …

      Pinboard added,

      0:09
      The RecountVerified account @therecount
      Replying to @BeschlossDC
      Here's the clip from Trump's Reading, PA rally: “If we win on Tuesday or — thank you very much, Supreme Court — shortly thereafter…” pic.twitter.com/erqh5uNMsk
      4 replies 6 retweets 41 likes
    2. Usetable Idius‏ @mobiustrip46 31 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard

      I'm curious why you acknowledged the weakness of the impeachment argument to win over enough voters in the polls but not the weakness of the president's current position in the polls. 2016 polls were only off at the state level, and 2018 polls were quite accurate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Usetable Idius‏ @mobiustrip46 31 Oct 2020
      Replying to @mobiustrip46 @Pinboard

      for example, most polls of the Midwest battle ground states have significantly increased the share of non college white voters in their polling samples. These are major adjustments since 2016. The WCW vote is captured in the polls already.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 31 Oct 2020
      Replying to @mobiustrip46

      I think the pandemic (and especially the dynamic where Republicans now vote several days after the Democrats) is too far outside the modeling parameters for the polls to warrant anything like the level of reassurance people are drawing from them

      4:49 PM - 31 Oct 2020
      • 6 Retweets
      • 26 Likes
      • Dustin [REDACTED] ben [THIS WEBSITE USES COOKIES] Joe Blubaugh Erin Newton Andrew Wooster 💉💉💯 Bennett Tomlin Evan McLain doleful moo of acab
      4 replies 6 retweets 26 likes
        1. barry‏ @mullingitover 31 Oct 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @mobiustrip46

          The republicans in 2020 feel like Giuliani's 2008 campaign, where he was losing badly and swearing that Florida would save him. IF their voters show up on election day they might be saved, but as it stands right now based on early voting they're facing a rout.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. HackFour‏ @four_hack 31 Oct 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @mobiustrip46

          Banking votes earlier is good.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Usetable Idius‏ @mobiustrip46 31 Oct 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard

          The late breaking potential swings don't take into account that we've already banked 90 million of the likely 150 million votes. Probably over 100 million by election day. That said, Hispanic working class turnout for Biden has me a bit concerned too. May be offset by suburbs

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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