A thread expressing some concerns I have, too. I think a lot of the articles about the genius of Biden's low-key approach to campaigning are being too clever by half, and the vital lessons of Brexit and 2016 (things can move quickly in the last week) have not been absorbed https://twitter.com/RiderOfKarma/status/1321174926288703488 …
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The country has become so politically segregated that it's hard for most voters to get a good read on how a national election is going. It's not like you have neighbors in the other party you can talk to. The polling is a lot like financial models—it works great until it doesn't
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Since voting by mail vs. voting in person has become politicized like everything else, I suspect the best thing you can do apart from donating money to candidates is to pray for multiple blizzards on November 3
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If some analysts are to be believed (Dave Wasserman), 2016 had anecdotal warning signs and district level polling warning signs (both ignored) This year the district level polls don’t support the anecdotes and aren’t flashing red. Small comfort, I guess.
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Yeah, I take his point, and his expertise. But it's also a pandemic year like no other, and the economic situation is also unprecedented. Polls ultimately rely on a few hundred people answering their phone, plus a huge superstructure of weighting and extrapolation from that
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I get the sense that this campaign is pretty professionally run, and isn't relying on those models. One of Biden's criticisms of Clinton's 2016 campaign was expanding the map rather than focusing on the Midwest. Not too many missteps so far.
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