Remember what happened to all these forecasters: they all got huge raises and are still forecasting, even that guy who ate a bughttps://twitter.com/Gridlock/status/1319739143195402242 …
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This is why you look at calibration/forecast skill. 538 publishes theirs and they are pretty good.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ …
We trained our model on this data set, and it does a good job predicting it!
he's up to 88/12 now... but your point stands.
This feels very much like disowning weather forecasts because of that one time the TV station said you didn't need an umbrella but it rained after all
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