You can predict 80/20 chances of anything happening and never be wrong a day in your life
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the fact that the forecast was 313 showed that the election was Trumps. That narrow of a margin is a Republican victory.
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i think thats mostly not true though? a bunch of publications that did 2016 forecasts aren't doing 2020 forecasts. of course, a new wave of forecasters have emerged, but the people who said 99.9% chance of clinton winning are mostly out of the game
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