TIL that if I say presidential election models are less useful than widely-assumed, many assume I don’t understand probability models and start explaining weather forecasts to me! No, that’s the point. They’re different in usefulness despite superficial/methodological similarity.
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Replying to @zeynep
How much does this extend, in your view, to Congressional races? On the one hand, a lot of the same problems and worse polling. On the other, a LOT more past data to use.
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Replying to @surcomplicated
Districts are easier imo. US electoral college (a lot of coupled first-past the post events) is wicked.
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