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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      Here's something I didn't realize: Alyse Galvin (IND, but Dem nominee) has led Don Young (R) in all three polls of AK-AL this cycle. Mainly Dem/progressive sponsored surveys, but still interestinghttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/alaska/ …

      13 replies 87 retweets 757 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      OTOH, it's interesting that the one pure nonpartisan poll here also showed Gavin up in the days ahead of the 2018 election, and Young did quite well among the state's Alaska Native population--which is generally believed to be a particularly tough group to reach in surveys

      1 reply 4 retweets 127 likes
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    3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      If the group is so hard to reach that you can't even weight them up, and you end up clumping it in with the more reliably Democratic 'other nonwhite' category, then you can wind up in a spot where you're pretty good in, say, the presidential race but maybe underestimate Young

      2 replies 5 retweets 94 likes
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    4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      In fact, eye-balling the results by district, it looks like Gavin might have outdone Begich in Anchorage. If so, then it really does makes sense that you could have Gavin leading the ticket in the poll, but behind other Dems on Election Day, if you don't get Alaska Natives

      2 replies 3 retweets 68 likes
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    5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      This year, I don't know whether to expect Sullivan to have any special strength among Alaska Natives. But it is interesting that most polls again seem to have Young running behind Sullivan.

      4 replies 3 retweets 69 likes
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    6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      Nate Cohn Retweeted Kiran  🗳

      Well, depends on how the poll is constructed, but I'd guess not. If you don't have many Alaska natives, I'd guess you'd weight on white v. nonwhite. If we assume 'other' nonwhite = D, then the poll would mainly only be biased when GOP wins AK Native votehttps://twitter.com/MichiganKiran/status/1314962877497913344?s=20 …

      Nate Cohn added,

      Kiran  🗳 @MichiganKiran
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn
      Could this mean polls could be overestimating Sullivan if Gross is doing better with Natives?
      2 replies 4 retweets 61 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      Now, it could work out the other way if the pollster doesn't collapse all nonwhite voters, and their sample of AK Natives winds up being too GOP. Then you're upweighting an unrepresentative set of GOP-leaners. I'd guess that's less likely, but IDK. Not much transparency

      2 replies 2 retweets 57 likes
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    8. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2020

      What I'll say, though, is that the former scenario--where pollster collapses white/nonwhite--does help explain how you wind up having Young well behind Sullivan, stipulating that Young is still doing well w AK natives like '18

      3 replies 2 retweets 61 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn

      For your analysis of polling error in 2018, you should look more closely at how a salmon ballot initiative drove turnout in the most Republican districts. (disclosure: I fundraise for Galvin)

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @Nate_Cohn

      Rule #2 of Alaska politics (after "it's hard to poll")—there's always a salmon angle. 🐟

      5:10 PM - 10 Oct 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • Political Incident Reporting USA 2020 Keegan Siebenaler James Bradbury Michael Bergerson marcüs Rick Gundlach
      0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes

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