I'm seeing a lot of "the second wave is coming!" takes and maybe it is, especially with colder weather. But **so far** the numbers in NYC/NYS are modestly encouraging, as they've tended to be flat after an initial increase.https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1312770989978255365 …
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Without wanting to get into the "where is the herd immunity threshold?" debate (I tend to doubt NYC is there yet), it seems one manifestation of an area that was near the threshold is not necessarily that it wouldn't have outbreaks, but that the outbreaks would peter out quickly.
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You can always import cases from outside the community. And you can always have sub-communities that either have a higher R0, or that have lower levels of immunity than the communitywide average. So you could have spread within those sub-communities but not so much beyond them.
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