There's been a consistent pattern this year of asserting the election will be about the event of the moment—it will be all about Iran, or impeachment, or covid, or protests, or the supreme court. But it's likely some big weird thing will happen in October to decide the outcome
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Replying to @Pinboard
The president's approval rating hovers within a very narrow range (+/- 3% per 538), though. I don't see what event in October will be different from anything else since January 2017.
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Replying to @noah_carmichael
You realize that's an argument for Trump winning?
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Trump won in 2016 with an approval rating of 36%, and that was a pretty close election, too.
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Saying "incumbent" is just another way of saying "I want to throw out data I don't like and use these six numbers"
10:06 PM - 19 Sep 2020
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