There's been a consistent pattern this year of asserting the election will be about the event of the moment—it will be all about Iran, or impeachment, or covid, or protests, or the supreme court. But it's likely some big weird thing will happen in October to decide the outcome
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Replying to @Pinboard
The president's approval rating hovers within a very narrow range (+/- 3% per 538), though. I don't see what event in October will be different from anything else since January 2017.
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Replying to @noah_carmichael
You realize that's an argument for Trump winning?
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Replying to @Pinboard
The election still takes place with the backdrop of covid, with I think will damage him. His path to victory is roughly similar to the last cycle, but I doubt he'll be able to win with a 80,000 vote margin like he did in 2016.
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Replying to @noah_carmichael
We probably foresee different outcomes (I'm confident Trump gets re-elected) but I bet we can agree the election is likely to be close
8:46 PM - 19 Sep 2020
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