There's been a consistent pattern this year of asserting the election will be about the event of the moment—it will be all about Iran, or impeachment, or covid, or protests, or the supreme court. But it's likely some big weird thing will happen in October to decide the outcome
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The election still takes place with the backdrop of covid, with I think will damage him. His path to victory is roughly similar to the last cycle, but I doubt he'll be able to win with a 80,000 vote margin like he did in 2016.
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We probably foresee different outcomes (I'm confident Trump gets re-elected) but I bet we can agree the election is likely to be close
End of conversation
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How so?
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Trump won in 2016 with an approval rating of 36%, and that was a pretty close election, too.
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