A 1 in 7 chance (14%) is close to the ideally untestable prediction for anything—strongly stated but roomy enough for either outcome. The only way to improve it is by adding precision à la @FiveThirtyEight, and saying Trump has a 1124 in 7352 chance of winning right now.https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1302999957100810242 …
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Absolutely! Out of any six presidental elections in 2016 Trump only won one.
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