I remember 538 giving Trump a sixteen-something percent chance of winning just before the 2016 election...
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And they were right!
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My gut feeling is that he's absolutely nailed on. To me, this looks like a weird repeat of 2016. And I'm not even a Trump fan. Thinking he has a 14% chance as the incumbent and with all the current chaos seems nearly delusional. Neck and neck at worst surely?
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