The states Biden has to win to become President are a small subset of the country that is considerably to the right of the country as a whole, while the people doing the political and social analysis of the contest are considerably to the left of the country as a whole.
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It's not impossible to be clear-eyed in a situation like this, but is hard to swallow a situation where you need to get to 54 or 56% just to win, and the people at the margins hold positions deeply antithetical to yours, and far from the mainstream beliefs of your party.
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I realize that sounded ambiguous—by "at the margins" here I mean the persuadable voter you need to be talking to in that small group of swing states, not a person a mainstream Democrat in a city, let alone a housebound political journalist, has a lot in common with.
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How is "the race will tighten and Trump can win" the same as "she's got this"?
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In 2016 I remember lots of pundits actually shouting down people who pointed out that the race was close and Trump could win. I don't see much of that this year.
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