I don't have a strong independent opinion on the turnout-vs-persuasion question because answering it properly would require data I don't have access to, so I rely on people who do have access to that...I don't love it though.
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How people have such blitheringly strong opinions without data or thinking about it, I will never understand.
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As I've said before it's a difficult problem. It's not merely knowing who voted in 2016 but not 2012 and vice-versa, which is hard enough...you also need to understand how those who voted in 2016 but not 2012 WOULD HAVE voted in 2012, and vice-versa.
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If Precinct X went from 3-2 Obama to 2-1 Trump, with three constant 2012/2016 voters, and Jim and Bob voted for Obama in 2012 but didn't vote in 2016, then you could say it's all turnout...except, what if Jim and Bob would have voted for Trump if they voted at all.
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It was clearly misogyny. Also, are they economically anxious in any way?
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