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The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

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    1. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 8 Aug 2020

      I would respect the proponents of engagement with China in the past more if they said 'It could have worked, but it failed, and we need to look at why' than when they push this 'actually it was never about the things we said it was about at the time' line.

      16 replies 48 retweets 320 likes
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    2. This Tweet is unavailable.
    3. James Palmer‏ @BeijingPalmer 8 Aug 2020
      Replying to @Aelkus

      I think one of the things that's hardest for people to accept is that in many ways engagement with the world *did* liberalize Chinese attitudes - and then the Party put a hard choke on it as it reasserted its power.

      4 replies 25 retweets 151 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 Aug 2020
      Replying to @BeijingPalmer @Scholars_Stage @Aelkus

      I'm glad you made this point. The element of chance and luck is overlooked too much in narratives of inevitable structural change. 1989 happened the way it did in Europe because we had a Soviet leader who in the end didn't want to send in tanks. China had one who did

      10:15 AM - 8 Aug 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 50 Likes
      • Bryan Nickman ͏ Kirara Decline 🧺 Gerbert, harverd sigma male Sasho Todorov J4 Fred “many people, and experts, feel ....” Hann Luka Ivan Jukic Elson Tong
      3 replies 2 retweets 50 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer and

          There's a very different trajectory China could have followed from 2012, which in retrospect would have vindicated everyone who believes economic liberalism must lead to political pluralism. But the reality is we just roll the dice a lot

          1 reply 6 retweets 36 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer and

          Anyway someone should write a sprawling novel about whether history is determined by individuals or great currents of inevitable fate, and make their wife retype it ten times

          2 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Dave Kammeyer‏ @davekammeyer 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer and

          Yes, but that Soviet leader was constrained by needing huge, state guaranteed western loans to buy food. Those loans would have evaporated if tanks rolled. The reason Gorbachev was in *that* situation is quite structural.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Gilman Grundy‏ @FOARP 10 Aug 2020
          Replying to @davekammeyer @Pinboard and

          Also worth remembering that Russia did have a leader who did send in the tanks: Boris Yeltsin. Strengthening Yeltsin might well not have led to a successful democratisation in Russia, because the man ultimately in charge was not really a democrat.pic.twitter.com/vDBxQ849O6

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. The Dude‏ @the__dude98 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @Pinboard @BeijingPalmer and

          Tiananmen happened before the Berlin Wall fell

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @the__dude98 @BeijingPalmer and

          The fall of the Berlin Wall was a telegenic symbol, but the real stuff happened in 1988.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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