Random thought: a lopsided Democratic edge in early voting may be a bit of an underrated challenge for pollsters. It's a bit dangerous to have one party lock in its votes, while the other party's voters don't get that kind of boost in their turnout probability
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Let's take an extreme example to illustrate: suppose a 50-50 race with *100%* turnout, and suppose 100% of Party A votes early, while no one in party B votes early. That poll will be biased toward party A, unless it assigned 100% turnout to all of party B (which wouldn't happen)
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IRL, the issue isn't underestimating Republican turnout. The real issue is that the Dems who don't vote early are less likely to vote than Republicans who don't, but they'll probably all tell you'll they'll vote. Alternately, you have too many Dem early voters
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We'll handle the latter just fine. The former is tougher and it's something I'll need to think about.
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Just add some jitter to the needle
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