I remember this map from 2016!https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1291363764273545221 …
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From the same article, which had Clinton carrying Utah as a reach goal. But her emails!pic.twitter.com/Rsyq6P02f5
Hmm how high did they rate her likelihood of winning at all, at that point?
From the next day there was an article that put her odds of winning at 75% with a caveat that if she was really up 8% on election day, it would be more like 93% -- the charts Maciej is showing are from an article specifically looking at what a Clinton blowout would look like.
This is a hypothetical, not a prediction. “How the electoral college would look if Clinton won the popular vote by 8 points”
I didn't call it a prediction. I said I remembered it from 2016.
As we all know articles gaming out hypothetical landslides are in fact exactly the same as forecasts based on the current state of the race.pic.twitter.com/eoKWbxyWLK
Saying "Polls show Biden has such a huge lead his real map looks like the fake ones in a clickbaity article about what it would look like if Clinton had a lead bigger than she ever had IRL." doesn't exactly tell the pessimistic story you think it does.
I'm not dumping on Nate Silver here. He opens that scenario with a reminder that Trump has a 1 in 4 or so chance of winning, by his model, and that this is a pretty high probability, all told. He was one of very few people to acknowledge it.
This is triggering my anxiety. Better give a little more to the State Slate.
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