This is the chart that still baffles me. Adding it to the pile of other things that baffle me about coronavirus.https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1287521833449906178 …
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When 50% of the fatality numbers come from retirement homes it is certainly plausible that improved procedures can cut later deaths. I’m skeptical these days that our society is capable of learning, but it’s hard to come up with other explanations.
I also wonder if we’re seeing a longer lag in a rise of fatalities because the older population knows to distance. I’m unsure how long that can keep working if numbers in all other age groups have their infection rates shooting up, though…
Surely one part of this is that NYC had a much higher level of infection than Arizona. Better protection of the elderly. Better medical treatments (remdesivir, steroids, cannular oxygen).
I don't think there's a mystery here. There was an uncontrolled epidemic in New York before any mitigation measures were taken. The virus was not nearly as bad in other places because people had already begun to social distance but it was spreading widely in New York before that.
If your point is that the CFR seems unusally high it's because the denominator is all wrong. There was no testing that early much at all. People came back from Italy and got sick and couldn't get tested because we were only testing travelers to China at that point.
maybe because it's per capita and NY was a "very hot" spot?
I think one explanation is that there may be 10x the infections as the case count. In NY, asymptomatic carriers were a lot more likely to spread it. This study used convenience samples of left over serum from, e.g., cholesterol testing.... https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768834 …pic.twitter.com/wl2Dy3RqgC
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