The excuse for all bizarre trends in coronavirus data is "just you wait until the real numbers come out". But I waited a long time, and the real numbers came out, and I didn't get any less baffled
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Why is it baffling? You would expect medical interventions to get better as people understand the virus better, so a factor of two in the death rate seems unsurprising, also the spread has been slower...
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No evidence either of those things are true
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Total mortality reporting has a huge lag at the best of times
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Not at this discrepancy, though
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I think it is a very quirky virus in the way it works, transmits, etc. Not like H1N1 and its peers
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and a lot of people are actually taking recommendations seriously and avoiding riskier activities nowadays.
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I don't see why this is bizarre. It shows the first place to get hit, got hit really hard. A few months later, the outbreaks spread to other places, they get hit, but not as hard. Time buys you knowledge, buy-in from the public, and advances in efficacy of prevention.
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testing is greatly expanded from the spring, so we detect a greater proportion of cases and medical treatment has improved, reducing the fatality rate of severe cases.
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no mystery. more educated areas are populated with people who know how to social distance and wear masks
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Or they have jobs which they can do from home at very low risk.
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