I'm seeing way too much overconfidence among people I thought were sensible about Trump's inevitable defeat. The president is as popular today as he was at the end of the 2019 shutdown, and if there's one lesson we should have learned by now, it's that the guy bounces back.
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What happens on November 3 will largely be determined by unforeseeable circumstances in October. That doesn't mean we can't plan and fight aggressively to win, but maybe the press can hold off repeating every single one of the mistakes it made in 2016, just to keep things fresh
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In particular, no one should assume that the coronavirus shares their politics (it's an ideologically complex pathogen!) or that the current mood of gloom and defeat won't be replaced by another cycle of jubilation and denial at an electorally inconvenient moment
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If you don't personally know anyone who voted for Trump, or can't imagine how anyone could vote for Trump, then consider that you're not in a great position to anticipate what's going to happen in November. Your gut feeling is *always* going to be that Trump will lose
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Replying to @Pinboard
The women I know who voted for Trump still support him. Not a single mind has changed
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I think of it like supporting a sports team. No matter how badly your team does, it doesn't make you pick a better team on the merits
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